There's been talk for a long time that somebody's gonna built a thin client internet access box that's gonna be perfect for most users and people will stop buying PCs and Macs. Every single time a company has come out with one of these boxes they've pretty much sucked. They usually have propriatory operating system, they usually will only run one kind of browser, one kind of email client and they usually have pretty high monthly fees for not getting much. Also, and I think that this is a big factor in their failure: They look like toys. Why would anyone wanting to jump into the great new world of the internet want to start on a toy. It's like a 16 year old wanting his first car to be a scooter.
But, I don't think that these companies are always going to be failing in the future. I'm pretty convinced that somebody will come of with a computer that acts as a thin client to a central server and if they do it right they are gonna make a ton of money and make a lot of people happy.
The vast majority of computer users use a very small subset of its possible applications: 1. Web access (web pages, streaming music, email, maybe rss), 2. Word processing, 3. Speadsheets, 4. Digital photo processing (downloading the photos from the camera, viewing the photos, printing the photos, emailing them to their friends relatives), 5. Tax software. And you know what? None of that needs to be running locally on your computer.
All you would need is a low end modern computer (the Mac Mini would do perfect) and replace the operating system with a version of linux that hides linux from the user. The users doesn't need anything except for a web browser. Nobody should know that it's actually linux that's running the computer. You just see Firefox. There should be a modest hard drive, the 40 gigs on the cheapest Mac Mini is more than enough. You just need enough space to cache your data before it goes to the server and while you're using it.
The expected response would be "Mac OS X Rulez man, why would you get rid of it?". Of course OS X rulez, but it's overkill for a normal user. Why should they have to worry about upgrading their software and (here's the biggy) why should they have to worry about backing up their data? I think that backups (or lack of) are going to cause majors problems for people and they don't even know it. People are switching to digital cameras fast and soon they'll have all of their memories on their hard drive, when it crashes all of that data will be lost. This is something huge that will make people pissed off if huge numbers when they realize what's going on. I think it's going to be talked about in the same way as the Virus/Worm/Spam problem that's going on right now.
Nobody (except me of course) should have to worry about building a
networked RAID storage for their house just to store their photos and mp3s. It would cost a lot less money to store them on a central server and access them as needed.
Slashdot just recently
ran an post describing Google's possible plans of creating an internet-wide operating system and there were a lot of interesting comments by people who don't seem to get it. For example:
Add on top of that people have routinely rejected thin-clients. Bandwidth and latency are big problems. I expect acess to my files and data with low latency. That means viewing my 8MB digital photos without waiting for part of all of it to come over a wire. I expect it to be available to me all the time.
Google is great, but Google is not above the law of physics. People - just average users - have 20 or 30 or 40 or 80 gb of data on their PCs. No matter how great Google gets, providing this amount of data quickly, securely, with low latency and high-availablity will prove out of reach. Even with Google's highly skilled team of programmers, making a decently response web-mail client, or map tool is a pain in the ass. And it's still below par. Despite how great Gmail is, it's not nearly a rich as Thunderbird or Outlook 2003.
and even better:
The bandwidth just isn't there for video or even industrial photo work. I wouldn't want to run a batch script to modify 5,000 images in the Ajax analog of Photoshop.
Both of these people seem to think that most users use all of the bits from all of their data all of the time. They don't. They listen to one song at a time, which can easily be streamed to them over an broadband connection. They rarely look at the full sized versions of their photos. Of course, they want the rest of the photo to be there if they do decide to zoom in or print, but most of the time they'll either be looking at thumbnails or 1024x768 images which won't be as hard to send over the internet. Just image how awesome it would be to plug your camera into your computer, have it import your photos and then start sending them to a central server where you'll never need to worry about disks crashing. And in response to the last comment, how many people run Photoshop scripts over 5,000 images?